Early this morning I found myself looking at a site that looked, at first, as though the far north port of Wick was setting up to launch a mission to the moon. Walking down the hill to harbour the massive white shapes that were giving this illusion began to become identifiable components of several new wind turbines.
Seeing these massive turbines and their supporting structures dwarfing the tiny fishing boats in the harbour got me thinking about the gulf of difference between large and small business or more particularly micro business enterprises.
I had been thinking about this already from reading the Bank of England’s latest survey of credit conditions in the United Kingdom. This had made me wonder about forecasting and the demands on micro business owners to foretell the future.
Rather than just regurgitate the assessments of the statistics provided by the economists and financiers of the last couple of days I thought I would do some number crunching with a different aim in mind.
It struck me that the people who provide the numbers to the Bank for the survey are the lenders themselves and the very ones who make the recommendations about lending policy within the lending institutions. I wondered how good their skills of prediction actually are.